About me

There has never been an immortal society. No matter how technologically advanced our own society is, it is unlikely to be an exception. To achieve a positive future that defies these odds, we must understand the hidden forces that shape society.

In 2017, I founded Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society. I am a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the Foresight Institute where I advise how institutions can shape the future of technology. Since 2024, I chair the editorial board of Palladium Magazine, a non-partisan publication that explores the future of governance and society through international journalism, long-form analysis, and social philosophy. From 2020 to 2023, I was a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation where I studied how institutions can endure for centuries and millennia.

I write and speak on history, institutions, and strategy with a focus on exceptional leaders that create new social and political forms. I have systematized this approach as “Great Founder Theory.”

Bismarck

I founded Bismarck Analysis to help companies, governments, philanthropists, and investors in their vital role of maintaining and advancing our civilization. We build long-term partnerships with select clients who aim to make a difference in the world.

Our unique analysis is made possible by a decade of research into the functioning of institutions and the strategy of live players. We further make use of cross-disciplinary expertise ranging from psychology to economics.

Great Founder Theory

What drives social change? What are the origins of institutional health or sclerosis? My answer is that a small number of functional institutions founded by exceptional individuals form the core of society. These institutions are imperfectly imitated by the rest of society, multiplying their effect. The original versions outperform their imitators, and are responsible for the creation and renewal of a society’s goods. Over time, functional institutions decay. As the landscape of founders and institutions changes, so does the landscape of society.